Rumors, Reasons, and Ramblings--on the slowdown

• The twenty million dollar question these days is “what is causing this slow down?” We all debate it constantly. Matter of fact, there is a whole blog dedicated to sorting through and compiling the rumors regarding this issue. http://www.isorumors.blogspot.com/ I know, because I am absolutely addicted to that blog(thanks for contributing to what I fondly call: my habit, Julie!)
  
  You know, when it really comes down to it, I don’t think there IS one simple answer to the “Why” of the slowdown. I think it boils down to a whole soup of beaurocratic issues that are bubbling to the surface in China right now. This information will be redundant to those who surf the rumors with the same religious fervor that I do, but I suppose that friends and family are curious as to why I’m not traveling to China in the next month to get my daughter, as originally planned. I want to address this issue for them, and for those just getting their feet wet in the adoption world.
  
  NOTE: EVERYTHING I TALK ABOUT BELOW IS RUMOR AND SPECULATION. This is a compilation of the various factors that MAY be contributing to the slowing of referrals. I have no inside info whatsoever.
  
  First, when you look at the history of international adoption in China, it has always been cyclical. When things first started slowing down, my heart lurched. I just knew that this was one more thing that wasn’t going to happen in our jumbled march to parenthood---talk about “the long march.” But as I began to listen to those who have been in this community a long time, I realized that there have been times when the process started out at 11 or 12 months and was shortened to 6 months during the wait, and times when the wait went from a short amount of time to a whopping 14 months. There has always been an ebb and flow to the speed with which referrals are handed out. Matter of fact, L, my China adoption inspiration, recently reminded me that she expected the referral for her second daughter in 8 months, but in fact, waited a full 14 months. Funny, I hadn’t remembered that…………but then again, when you aren’t in this process yourself, you don’t really get how it feels to wait for that referral with baited breath.
  
  Second, there are some real changes going on with the CCAA (China Center for Adoption Affairs) This is the governmental agency in China that oversees adoptions.
  They have a new director who probably has some different priorities regarding the direction and scope of International Adoption. For instance, the CCAA is reporting that they intend to increase the focus domestic adoption and to make more children available for adoption by Chinese people.
  
• The CCAA has a whole slew of new responsibilities, including the administration (and promotion of) the domestic adoption program. They are also now responsible for the management and quality of care provided in the orphanages. Along with new responsibilities, come an increased work load, the need for additional employees, and reportedly new paperwork systems. All of these new challenges create wrinkles in efficiency that takes time to iron out.
  
• Adoption applications are reportedly up by about 25 to 50%---this is not substantiated, but there are numerous percentages being thrown out there. China has a quota on how many children they make available to International adoption per year. It stands to reason, that if the same number of babies are available, but have to be distributed among increased numbers of applicants, it will take longer to get to everyone. There was some speculation that China was in process to open up additional orphanages to adoption (and thus increase the numbers of children available), but recent rumors indicate that China does not intend to increase the numbers of children slated for international adoption. Therefore the wait will increase, and some say, may end up at around 18 months eventually. This will be a gradual increase. Right now the wait is about 11 months.
  There has been a huge scandal in the Hunan Province of China involving baby trafficking. This is to everyone’s horror, since no one wants to adopt a child that has not been legitimately abandoned. There were some bogus new stories about kidnapping, but hard news reports, indicate that the incidents involved the selling of infants who were then put up for adoption---with some orphanage directors pocketing money. China is coming down hard on the offenders and the trials have just recently been completed. Hunan orphanages did not stop processing adoptions altogether during this time, but one or two of them closed down and the rest slowed referrals to a trickle. A huge number of International adoptions have historically come from this province.
  
• Several sources indicate that China’s (EVENTUAL) goal is to increase domestic adoptions, adoptions to those of Chinese ancestry, and waiting child adoptions, and to decrease the number of non special needs international adoptions. I haven’t heard anyone speak of stopping adoptions, just tilting the scale a little in the other direction.
  
  
  Clearly, there aren’t enough paper ready babies to match with the number of applicants logged in during any given month. I believe that ALL those things listed above are impacting the number of babies available for adoption each month. While I don’t expect them to go back to processing things as fast as in previous years, I do think there’s some wiggle room to go a little faster. For instance, now that the trials are over in Hunan, the orphanages there can hopefully breathe a sigh of relief and get back to business (although I’m sure they will proceed with caution considering the scrutiny they have been under), and once the new responsibilities and paperwork systems are in place for the CCAA and orphanage directors, they may be able to prepare a somewhat greater number of files than in the past few months.
  
  Nothing in life is simple is it? And historically, when the wait for referral has become backlogged and the wait got long, people have started oobling off in other directions. A few choosing waiting child program, some choosing other countries for adoption, and waaaala! The line went down, and the wait times decreased. I have little doubt that this is what will happen again, unfortunately, we happened to sign on cusp of the backlog, and now we just have to wait it out.